India's Population Growth

India rivals China as population leader

India, the world’s largest democracy, is the second country in the world to reach an estimated population of one billion; the first was China. The current rate of population growth in India is astonishing, with the yearly increase being equivalent to the population of Australia (about 18 million).

A projection by United Nations demographers has India’s population reaching 1.5 billion by 2050. If China’s and India’s demographic paths remain as they are now, that would mean that, by 2045, India would topple China in its place as the most populous country.

Census 2001: gathering hard data

According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNPF) India’s population officially reached one billion at 12.56 pm (New Delhi time) on 11 May 2000. No one was certain whether India’s population really did reach one billion on that day. The figure was an estimation based on a complex formula that included data on such things as birth rates, death rates, gender ratios, levels of migration and numbers of refugees.

In an attempt to gather hard facts on the size of India’s population, an official government Census of India was held. Beginning on 9 February, the population was ‘fixed’ by the Census at midnight on 28 February 2001.

This Census provides answers to important questions about changes to India’s society and economy, and gives valuable insights into India’s demographic characteristics like the levels of literacy, education, health, fertility and mortality.

How 2001 Census was carried out

Two million officials were involved in collecting the Census of India data. This was an administrative task considered to be the world’s biggest.

The 2001 Census:

• surveyed 200 million households, 650 000 villages, 5 500 large towns and cities
• was conducted in 17  languages
• involved the processing of 250 million census forms posing 39 questions
• included new questions which tried to determine demographic and geographic changes in India’s population (for example, increasing migration to the big cities where middle-class numbers have substantially increased; the age of men at marriage; the mode of travel to work; the sources of income)
• made an estimate of the ‘homeless’ millions who sleep out on footpaths and railway stations
• was ‘avoided’ by many people who do not pay their taxes
• grouped prostitutes with beggars and others who were considered to be earning their income in ‘illegal ways’ (those not considered to be part of normal economic activity)
• for the first time questioned families about the number of girls followed by questions about the number of boys.

Data collection problems for 2001 Census officials

Because of the size of the administrative task, complex problems arose in data collection. Regional problems also presented difficulties to collectors.

• The Census survey began earlier in the mountainous states in the north of India. (See Heinemann Atlas 3^rd edn, pages 132–3.)
• Winter snows in these areas made the Census a very difficult task – it took place over a longer period than the normal three weeks.
• The Census was continually interrupted by fighting in the Himalayan region of Kashmir. The border war with Pakistan and a civil war with Muslim militants in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir is continuing. (See Heinemann Atlas 3^rd edn, page 132.)
• The Gujarat earthquake on India’s National Day, 26 January 2001, was centred near Bhuj, in an area west of Ahmadabad. It created extreme difficulties for Census workers in the western districts of the state of Gujarat. (See Heinemann Atlas 3^rd edn, page 133, map reference E4.) The worst affected area of Gujarat, the region of Kutch, was surveyed at a much later date. (See Heinemann Atlas 3^rd edn, page 133, map reference 132 D4.)

Despite all these problems and setbacks, the enormous task was completed and the Census data is available on the Census of India website (see this update’s Web Links page for link).

Results of the Census

The Census revealed that at 0:00 hrs on 1 March 2001, the population of India was 1 027 015 247, an alarming figure.

There was an increase of 2.1 percentage points in the proportion of the population living in urban areas during the 1991–2000 period, though about 742 million (or 72.2%) lived in rural areas and 285 million (or 27.8%) lived in urban areas. The population is therefore still largely a rural one. This fact, and that of increasing urbanisation, has implications for many aspects of life, including literacy rates, availability of resources, employment and social and population change, as you will see below.

Statistical analysis reveals many significant issues for India's massive population.

• The 2001 Census shows that overall illiteracy rates 'are now in decline for the first time since independence'. For those aged seven or above, literacy rates now stand at 65.38% (in 1991 the figure was 52%, roughly 13 percentage points lower). The literacy rates for males are higher than for females (76% males and 54% females). Nevertheless, in percentage points, the gain in literacy is greater for females. As in the 1991 Census, the total rural literacy rate is significantly lower than the total urban literacy rate, and the overall male literacy rate is also significantly greater in both rural and urban areas as a whole.
• Literacy rates, it is important to note, nevertheless vary significantly throughout India. Kerala (Heinemann Atlas 3rd edn, page 33, map reference F2) is the state with the highest literacy rate of 92%. In the previous 1991 Census of India the literacy rate there was 90% overall, with 94% for males and 86% for females. Contrast Bihar (Heinemann Atlas 3rd edn, page 33, map reference H4), with a total literacy rate of under 47.5%, females in the Kishanganj district of Bihar having only an 18.5% rate of literacy.
• More than half all Indian children are undernourished, and malnourishment occurs in 64% of India's children.
• About one-third of Indians (an estimated 300 million) live below the poverty line.
• Unemployment is also a major problem, with ten million new entrants into the job market each year.

Consequences

• The huge growth in population is outpacing food production, even though in the past 50 years India has tripled its grain harvest.
• The health care system cannot cope with the increase in health-related problems
• The rapid growth of cities has led to a further increase in unemployment.
• Natural resources, including water, are rapidly running out (forest destruction, degradation of farmland and falling water tables pose major problems).
• India has enough food for now, but the continued high birth rate is eroding an already shrinking cropland and dwindling water supply.
• India’s 338 million children under 15 years of age create a major challenge for education authorities.
• Lack of education of the young means many remain ignorant of contraception. Inadequate education in this area has slowed efforts to limit population growth.
• There is still a need to continue to educate women, raise their status and provide better health care. (Female access to education is an important part of creating smaller families, though other factors, such as increasing urbanisation and other areas of social development, play their role.)

You need to look closely at the Census of India website (see the Web Links page for this Atlas Update) to come to terms with the huge extent of data collected and to examine further some of the issues facing the people of India.