The Population Summit: Australia 2050, was held in Melbourne on 25 February 2002. It was designed by its convenor Steve Vizard as a forum for reasoned, informed debate about population policy and related immigration issues.

More than 750 people took part, including over 200 students from various secondary schools in Victoria. There was an impressive range of speakers including Australian National University Professor Ross Garnaut, former Labor politician Barry Jones, scientist and author Tim Flannery, the Australian Conservation Foundation’s Michael Krockenberger, leading commentator on urban and social problems Tim Costello, industrialist Richard Pratt, Monash University’s Centre for Population and Urban Research’s Bob Birrell and the Victorian Multicultural Commission’s George Lekatis.

As Victorian Premier Steve Bracks said in his opening address, the summit came at a crucial time when 'Australia’s declining fertility rates [the average number of children born to each woman in her lifetime] and relatively low levels of net migration [the difference between those arriving and those leaving] means Australia’s population could begin to decline within the next 50 years'. This is also a period in which Australia’s population will be ageing. In other words there will be a higher proportion of older people in the community and fewer younger, tax-paying workers to support them. Already, with our current technology, the existing Australian population is putting considerable pressure on our key resources – especially water.

A range of views

The summit organisers arranged speakers under the following headings: Economics, Environment, Humanitarian, Demography, Media & Public Perception, Culture, Youth Perspective, The People, and International Relations. There were at least four speakers on each of these areas.

Some key facts

• Australia’s population was estimated at 19 386 700 at 30 June 2001. This was an increase of around 15.5 million from 100 years earlier.
• The fertility rate was 1.749 in 2000. This is well below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain current population levels over a long time. In Victoria, the fertility rate was an even lower 1.625.
• In 2000–2001, 80 610 settlers arrived under the Federal Government’s migration program. Of these settlers, 41.5% entered as part of the Family Reunion Category, while 55.5% entered as part of the Skills Category.
• In 2000–2001, 13 750 people were allowed entry as part of the humanitarian program. Many of these people were considered as refugees. This number included both temporary and permanent visa holders.
• Australia’s population growth – from natural increases and net migration combined – was a low 1.2% in 2001. Net migration accounts for 0.49% of this figure. This is significantly below a target of population growth of 2% set over 50 years ago to increase our national population.
• Around 24% of Australia’s total population was born overseas – almost the same proportion as existed back in 1901.
• Approximately 12% of Australia’s population is now aged 65 and over. By 2050 it could reach between 24 and 27%. At present for every person aged 65 and over there are 5.5 people aged between 15 and 64. Most of these younger people are part of the workforce and pay taxes. By 2050 there may be as few as 2.5 younger people for every person 65 years and over.

The Heinemann Atlas 3^rd edn has a number of pages central to these population issues:

• Pages 30–1 detail Australia’s population distribution and growth, migration and predictions for the future.
• Pages 43, 53, 67, 77, 91 and 100 include examples of population movements within Australia.
• Pages 198–201 put Australia in a world context of growth and movement including refugees.

Some key questions

The current situation raises a number of key questions, many of which were tackled by speakers and questioners at the Population Summit in Melbourne. These questions included:

• How many people can Australia support at current and future levels of technology?
• How do we adjust our age structure to avoid a situation with a top- heavy ageing population supported by a much smaller, younger, working population?
• Do we raise our net migration levels or encourage the existing population to have more children, or take on both strategies?
• Where will new migrants come from?
• Is our migrant mix (family, skilled, business and humanitarian) working?
• Should we be encouraging large numbers of overseas contract workers, as many European countries are now doing?
• What can we learn from the population situations in other countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada?
• How do we manage and sustain our environments as the population increases?
• Where will these increased populace live: in the existing cities, in the regional centres or in new centres?